At Draft Kings, the underdogs reign supreme

DraftKings is running a promotion for the first week of the NFL season, where a moneyline bettor will get cash if the team you’re betting on increases by 10 points or more at any time during the game.

The money line will also take cash, if the team you bet on wins but never goes up by 10 points.

The sportsbook offers the same promotion for the inaugural Thursday season between the Bills and Rams – but at a better price. Just making seven points there will win your bet.

The maximum bet is up to $250 for VIP accounts. Most accounts will see a maximum bet of $50 per game, but the maximum bets will range everywhere in between, depending on how much you bet in the book.

DraftKings has run this promotion for other events in the past, Especially during the 2022 NBA FinalsAnd the When both parties cashed out during a vertical 1 game.

For this week’s promotion, I analyzed which teams to pick by looking at each game from 2009 to 2018, the most recent year for which data of this type is available.

My main thesis was figuring out whether the favorites or the underdogs are the better game.

The results were clear: the candidates are the best overall.

Teams less than 0.500 saw an increase in their odds of winning by approximately 8.4%. Meanwhile, teams 0.500 and above saw only a 5.5% probability increase of promotion.

The strength of the relationship between the team’s winning percentage and the probability they got by applying the promotion is high. This is reflected in the correlation coefficient -0.35.

In fact, this means that the worse the team, the better their selection for this promotion.

I’m not going to take the underdogs for every pick in this promotion, since there’s not much difference between a small favorite and a small underdog. For example, if DraftKings had a valuable font for a small favourite, I might be more inclined to take it.

However, I will be looking to take each major underdog based on the above information.

Teams that did very poorly saw a statistically high probability of boosting their “win” ratio with this promotion.

For example, the Pittsburgh Steelers +230 are on the road against the Bengals on Sunday. With the above 8% probability increase as a result of this promotion, fair odds are priced at +160.

This gives this choice at +230 approximately 26% in expected value (EV). Effectively, you are expected to win $26 for every $100 you bet over the theoretical long term on that particular bet.

This method is not ideal and some games will have higher or lower exposure value depending on game up/down and other factors.

My choices:

  1. Bills -130 (seven point view)
  2. +245 . planes vs crows
  3. We’ll wait for the Bears streak to improve against the 49ers
  4. Texas +265 against the ponies
  5. Steelers +230 opposite the bengals
  6. Black +165 against eagles
  7. Hawks +195 against the saints
  8. Patriots +155 vs dolphins
  9. Brown +105 opposite the leopards
  10. Jaguar +120 versus the leaders
  11. Giants +210 against the titans
  12. Cardinals +200 opposite the bosses
  13. -120 . packs against the vikings
  14. Raiders +155 versus chargers
  15. Cowboy +120 vs pirates
  16. Seahawks +240 vs bronco

How do you rate this article?