The first week always gives conflicting reactions. We’re sure of our fantasy rosters after the draft, and we can’t wait for Friday Night Football to kick off the season. However, I know I’m not the only one staring at my formation before locking, wondering who’s going to start. It’s the meme of harvest and sowing embodied. But I’m here to help – or at least to give you the blame on someone else for a few days.
I’ll be highlighting TNF throughout the year in this weekly column. Specifically, I’ll highlight some of the marginal players you might be discussing compared to the Sunday/Monday options. The stats and trends help me see the game, but I’ll walk Narrative Street if the story is compelling enough.
But it’s the first week of the season. Let’s take a look at the game and see what to expect Thursday night.
Possible to preview Super Bowl 57 in Week 1 as the Rams Bills hosts
The NFL schedule makers gave us a solid performance in the first week. They matched our enthusiasm for watching live, meaningful football with a competition between two of the best teams from 2021. Los Angeles won the right to lift the Lombardy Cup in February. But let’s not forget the roller coaster ride from Josh AllenFinal match of last season:
Knowing how it ends does not prevent my heart rate from rising. I know that “13 Seconds” brings back painful memories of the Mafia Bells. But, as we knock on the door of 2022, we can look back and see what Buffalo wants to do this year.
Josh Allen managed the third most pass plays with three or four receivers on the field. Pair the pass rate in the Top 3 on Expectations (PROE) with their employee additions, and their plan is clear.
Regardless of Brian Dabol’s departure, it’s spreading and tearing the season apart. It depends on one man.
Gabriel Davis He made great strides as a sophomore recipient. He took his success rate versus man/press coverage a step further. He also scored more goals, accumulated more yards and had a higher EPA per goal than his teammate. Stefon Diggs During the last six matches.
However, Davis’ success brought Diggs back into the overall WR1 discussion.
With a reliable ambient option, Diggs can go back indoors as the hatch rate is down by a third in 2021. We’re gas cooking if they sprinkle contributions from the additional options. The Los Angeles High School game might give Buffalo spells, but we’ll need to see what the Rams’ offense looks like first.
Matthew Stafford Open Rams attack last season. He was among the top six in air yards per attempt and EPA per game in deep passes. Even when depth is limited, Stafford can send spam on sailing concepts cooper cup. But his surrounding talent waned this year Robert WoodsDeparture and no timetable for Odell Beckhamback.
This puts the burden on her Allen Robinson And what can he do with the best midfielder in his career?
Last season, Robinson hit career lows in target share, yards and efficiency. I will also struggle to stay motivated in a team that is heading towards rock bottom. However, despite the fictional disappointment, Robinson still had some juice in the tank.
The reception idea highlights Robinson’s success on the short and medium routes. In addition, it was still ranked 12th in pass rate against man and press coverage. Los Angeles needs a new option in back digs to supplement Cobb. If Robinson can return to his former self, the Rams will be in contention again in 2022.
Don’t sit on the bench these guys
But Thursday night isn’t just about fantasy. Our late draft goals have value, too. If you’re reconsidering the Sunday option, here’s a little play on TNF with Flex Appeal.
I understand any hesitation in starting McKinsey in the first week. He’s played more than 75 percent of the team’s offensive strokes just twice since 2020. So any prediction for Thursday is a generous extrapolation of his accomplishments. But let’s not cast them aside at the same time.
Diggs played both games. Other additional options (eg, Emmanuel Sanders, John Brown) was also available. Regardless, McKinsey immediately had a target stake of 25.3%. And not just unwanted targets. Diggs took charge as the deep threat to the team from the hole. Again, it’s a sample of two games, but McKenzie captured 30.4% of the team’s aerial yards. With the Bills overusing all three sets of receivers, McKenzie has a safe path to goals from the start of the season.
My only concern is in the red. McKenzie’s 5’8-inch tire might not be an obvious Allen target. However, his track participation (90.5%) and earning looks in both games indicate otherwise. McKenzie’s prowess is a wildcard that the Bills need to play against an opponent of this caliber – and you must play against your opponent.
The Knox platform operates under the radar with a large focus on wide receivers. At least, we can hope that this is how the Rams plan the game. It was a TE11 last year with just under 600 yards, so I have my doubts. But let’s contextualize his 2021 campaign.
Knox was the EPA tightest end of each game for the first six weeks. well good. You do not play in leagues that award points for EPA. However, high-value goals may affect you. Knox was sixth in the red and tied for the second time in the team. But then he broke his hand and missed two games and couldn’t get back on track. He kept the team’s standings until the end of the season, but his efficiency declined.
In the first week, Knox and Diggs have the strongest relationship with Allen once inside the 20-yard line. Los Angeles was stingy against tough ends last season, only allowing four points from the center. However, three of the top five performances against them came due to fouls with traveling back players. Allen’s ability to use his legs and pause his inner defenders can create a window for Knox to take advantage of.
I’ll keep it on my start list Thursday night.
Higbee’s ADP has confused me all season. He was in the top ten at the tracks despite missing two games and still ranked 14th in the target share out of all the tight ends. I just talked about Robinson’s importance to the attack. Higbee falls into the same category and already has an existing connection with Stafford.
We should not expect a massive shift in Higbee’s workload. However, with Van Jefferson Entering the season is painful, the modest bump is not unreasonable. Plus, it’s the red zone targets that we’re really after anyway.
While managing the roads, Higby’s posting last season capped his increase. His 5.7 aDOT measurement was 22 among his peers. Therefore, unless he was like Cobb after hunting, he would not be able to work far in the field. However, he ranked 10th in goals for every track run from within the 20-yard line. His 20 goals in the red were second to the Rams – and across the league. With just a few other options available, Higbee should have the chance to start the season in the top 12 in the center.
Let’s wait a week and see how it goes
Alternatively, we may need to navigate some of the players and their situations. I get it. It’s only the first week. Regardless, I’ll check your seat before starting any of these guys.
Either the rams run backwards
a look. I give you value here. the gathering Cam Akers And the Daryl Henderson In one recommendation it is like a two-for-one special offer. But, with ADP for Akers, your other options may be suboptimal. However, it is a situation I try to avoid.
The Buffalo Defensive Front finished third in 2021 in adjusted line yards. While the staff changes, the talent (and depth) does. Bills also came out and signed by Miller. The same von Miller who developed the Los Angeles defense last year. From weeks 1 to 10, the Rams were 19th in the EPA allowed dash. After Miller was signed and acclimated, they climbed to second place. Only three backs ran cracked 50 yards. And I haven’t even mentioned the divided workload in this backyard yet.
One of them would be viable in this case. Los Angeles needed additional receiving options, and the bills were subject to a play or two on the floor. But after all the pre-season talk, I’d like to see their situational roles before confidently starting out in either one.
Buffalo told us with their wallet what they want this crime to look like in the future. Of course, we all want to see Allen blast the ball to Diggs. But you don’t elevate a man like Mackenzie to a full-time role, bring him Jamison CrowderTry to sign JD Mikic Then recruit James Cook if you’re looking to build a high-level attack. You want your midfielder to take the passes. But Allen historically hasn’t.
Allen’s aDOT pass has been the top ten for the past three seasons. The rate of his profound attempts was 12th highest at the same time. Despite the looming threat of more high-shell and 8 Coverage Shells, Allen’s aggression knows no bounds. Patrick Mahomes The Chiefs are gone for the past two seasons, and Mahomes’ depth has decreased as a result. We haven’t seen Allen do the same yet.
Cook had one shot with Allen under center during pre-season. It will take time for his responsibilities to solidify. We’ll see more of it as the year progresses, but I’ll keep it on guard for now.