The first week is all about trying to find the right level of reaction. You need to respond to what you see, but we must collectively try not to overreact.
Some action is required in the wake of the “big reveal”.
This is basically the first week: the curtain rises and we finally see what we’ve been expecting all summer. Sometimes our predictions seem too accurate and sometimes they get thrown off. Then we have to decide whether the first week is just a passing picture or a new reality that we need to adjust our expectations to match.
My entire advanced stats calendar for the first week will be centered around the “big shows” which I can’t wait to see how it plays out. I’ll start with a whole team I can’t wait to follow Las Vegas Raiders.
Over the past three years on average, Josh McDaniels’ offenses have been in the bottom half of the league in running plays and have maintained a run rate of 46%. Now, it is worth noting that those three chapters contained the last year of Tom Brady‘s A Patriot running around while chained to a hacked receiver, weird Cam Newton general and Mac Jones” Rookie campaign. You could argue that McDaniels was saddled with a situation where it was simply impossible to manage the crime he wanted.
We’ve seen McDaniels’ offenses in New England play fast and pass high in a powerful clip. Nothing about the Patriots in the past three seasons, especially the last two, has been so easy to play like this. He wants to do something different in a perfect world, but he can’t. with Derek Carr At the helm, he has a midfielder who can run a highly efficient, high-volume passing game.
You’d better believe that’s what he wants if you’re at all invested in invaders pass gamers.
It is good that the target distribution of the Raiders is highly concentrated among the top three men. There is really no legit WR3 that will command appearance and during Amir Abdullah Seems like he’s clearly going backwards, he’s more likely to be an executing player than someone who gets planned goals.
Adams is the best outside receiver in the NFL but still lined up the slot on 466 shots last season and kept a whopping 37.3% goals per track. When he was inside, they would get him with the ball. Renfrow is essentially a slot receiver but has enough power to beat man coverage to play as an off-line receiver on the outside. Waller is a former wide person who can line up outside as an X receiver in certain packages. McDaniels has a lot to work with and will mainly design plays around these three guys.
However, you would prefer that these three players split 65-70% of the big scroll pie and that’s worth watching in the first week.
While the raiders have embarrassment of fortunes in the reception department and we Think That McDaniels wants to throw the ball high in a perfect world, we need to see it. This brain confidence also brought in defenders Jacob Johnson from New England. They can shoot big passes from heavy personnel packs – the 2021 Raiders have already done a good job – but that still speaks volumes about wanting to run the ball well.
This is the key. The Raiders should aim to be a good running team. Josh Jacobs Good afternoon and upward Zamir White He has some pop. Also, their offensive line isn’t good enough to hold back a ton and not eliminate Carr. However, they should Not Being a huge running offense like the McDaniels teams lately.
There are upsells in the score set where Carr has a career best season, pushing for 5,000 yards with 30-plus to land in the air. Old McDaniel’s crimes help get that kind of production, the Raiders have three traffic hunters to make it happen, and Carr is perfectly good enough to run an uptempo crime like that. In this scenario, everyone eats here. What we don’t want to see in the first week is what kind of Raiders team seem to want to start racing with Johnson on the field a lot, even if they’re up against the Chargers that moved production to running last year.
We want to see a quarterback who takes the ball out quickly and exploits a variety of mismatches that will be available when you have one of the best spacers, a dynamite slot, and a tight end at your disposal.
I think that’s what’s going to happen but I need the big reveal to show that’s the case. That’s what the first week is about.
Aaron Jones tops all RBs with 300 frames with a 15.4% screen-trajectory ratio
Aaron Jones It was the upside as a receiver that had me categorizing it firmly as my RB6 throughout the draft season. Yes, he’ll probably split the hasty work early with him A.J. Dillon. The latter may be a factor as a future more than we think.
However, Jones is the only reliable and explosive player in the Packers receiving order. His range of results includes him leading the team in the highest moments and I’m not sure about that who – which strange case.
Aaron Rodgers He will definitely look to Jones as an option in the passing game because he trusts him and the run has shown the ability to receive the bottom of the field. We clearly see that they will design touches in the scrolling game as well. If Jones is going to come back on my very bullish expectations, I’d like to see that be the case in the first week.
Antonio Gibson ranked second with 13.9% for the screen track.
This is interesting because we know Antonio Gibson He does not have a huge role in passing JD Mikic in the barn. However, Washington clearly wouldn’t mind devising some debate for him to get the ball in space. This makes sense given his receiving background, even if they don’t trust him as a pass blocker or an offense of hurrying.
with Brian Robinson Unfortunately, on the shelf for at least four weeks, Gibson’s weekly forecast will look the same as it did last season. Maybe he’s playing on a slightly better attack now, or at least one that would threaten teams vertically more often.
Remember, Gibson made eight games of over 19 touches last season despite sustaining an injury. He could get a hot start in 2022 with the Jaguars and Lions the top two teams on the Washington schedule.
James Conner averaged 4.5 yards per transfer running in the light boxes
He ranked second with 120 points in light chests, which is good for 59% of his total campaigns.
Conner’s spoiled overall yards per carry from last season is often cited as the main reason for his fading. However, it’s worth remembering that his massive short yardage and goal line resulted in his lower yards per carry. This is how averages work!
This stat shows that Conner was still effective and could be explosive when running in favorable situations. The Cardinals spread the field more than any other team with groups of multiple receivers. He will find himself in many of those beneficial manifestations.
Of all the wide receivers, DJ Moore ranked fourth in team air yards share, fourth in goal share and seventh in goals per track.
We just don’t give enough credibility to the fact that DJ More Volume saw alpha level last year. With no one willing to skip behind him and Can Robbie AndersonHe could easily do it again.
I’m sure I’ve said that 100 times over the course of the season but I want to be a big season ahead of Moore. Now that he’s been awarded at least the league’s average quarterback for the first time in his career, 2022 could be the season.
How Baker Mayfield His plays and his relationship with Moore is one of the first week that reveals what I’m most looking forward to. I think their games overlap a lot more than Mayfield’s games Odell Beckham But it is time to bear fruit.
Mitch Trubesky averaged 9.5 air yards per attempt in pre-season and only threw 17.6% of his passes at or behind the scrimmage line.
For more context, Kenny Beckett It was at 8.9 and 22.2%. Even both of those numbers were a long way from what Ben Roethlisberger Laid there last season.
The Steelers attack is full of good young players that we all want to love in fantasy football. There is no way all these players could strike if the attack was organized as it was last year. We have reason to believe that Roethlisberger halted the attack, not necessarily just by his play, but also by his refusal to turn on modern concepts like movement, play, or even going center. He just didn’t want to get it and that kept the offense restricted to short zones.
We have plenty of evidence from the way the midfielders played in pre-season and the amount of movement Matt Canada called for, that things are going to change this season. Beckett wasn’t a flawless prospect, and Trubesky’s NFL career was clearly not a smooth one. However, simply from a structural perspective, they could be upgrades to the Steelers’ attack and it’s clear that Beckett has the upside to be more than that.
Stampede Ratio Top 5 QB
1- Tree Lens 14.3%
2 – Justin Fields 13.9%
3- Galen Hurts 11.5%
4- Lamar Jackson 10.7%
5- James Winston 10.6%
I was and still consider myself a Tree Lance guy. He’s right at the top of my list for week 1 revealing that I can’t wait to see him.
I’m also open to the idea of it Justin Fields It is the arbitrage version of Lance. There’s no doubt that Lance is surrounded by superior passers and would probably be a better running game in San Francisco. However, if Fields continues to scramble for a similar clip, he will easily outbid his ADP. You could argue that this new training device is more likely to lean more mobile than Matt Nagy’s crew. We’ve seen a lot of boot-ups and pocketing from Chicago in pre-season.
Fields had a low streak of top 12 goalscoring weeks when he was healthy in the later parts of his rookie year. The Chicago crime will have its messy moments, but Fields can still do well in fiction. If you have a non-elite QB1 that you feel somewhat unsure about – A Matthew Stafford or Derek Carr Type and maybe Lance himself – I think you can hide the fields.