As part of an article that was both cool and deceptive, ESPN Predict the performance of quarterbacks for all 272 regular season matches for the upcoming season And in doing so, some interesting insights into the quarterback’s status in Seattle have been revealed. To be clear, they are false visions crafted by ESPN fantasy football Guru, Mike Clay, but I don’t think that makes them any less interesting.
Insight #1: Geno Smith and Russell Wilson are more alike than we thought.
In their words:
Do you think we’ll feature a different game here? Russell WilsonHe begins his first season in Denver by returning to the city where he came from Energy in 2013. Jeno Smith He will start for the Seahawks after winning a QB fight against Drew Lock – which was also included in the major trade that landed Wilson with the Broncos. This is going to be fun
That’s not the interesting part though.
This is it:
- Completion and attempts: Wilson 21 out of 33 (64%) | Gino 22 out of 35 (63%)
- Traffic yards: Wilson, 251 | GNU, 250
- Landing and intelligence: Wilson, 2 TDs + 1 INT | GNU, 1 out of every
- Traffic Rating: Wilson, 98.4 | GNU 86.1.2 Update
The article doesn’t actually predict who will win or lose the game, but if the stats are close, the Seahawks might have a chance to give Wilson his first L as the Bronco.
Insight No. 2: Jenno Smith would average just shy of 250 yards per game.
Color surprised by this.
Geno’s career average is 153.7 yards per game. in recent articlesuggested that it could be considered a career year if GNU averaged about 165 yards per game (2,800 yards on 17 games).
Here are the passing yards that Mike Clay set for Geno Smith during the first 10 games of the season: Week 1 = 250; 2nd week = 246; week 3 = 236; 4th week = 251; 5th week = 249; week 6 = 248; 7th week = 261; 8th week = 234; 9th week = 254; Tenth week = 256.
That would give GNU 2,485 yards heading into Week 11 in Seattle.
That’s an average of 248.5 per game.
Insight No. 3: Gino Smith will set a career high for touchdown passes… before farewell.
Admittedly, this is the bare minimum for clarification.
Geno threw 13 touchdown passes in 2014. That, up to this point, was the highest of his career.
Mike Clay predicts that Gino will throw at least one touchdown per game, and that he will throw 2 touchdowns against Detroit Lions (week 4), and Arizona Cardinals (week 6), and New York Giants (week 8), the cardinals again (week 9).
This would give him 14 touchdowns.
New career high.
Insight No. 4: Seattle will be sitting on the bench Gino Smith during the farewell and rolling with Drew Luke during the last 7 games.
This, to me, sounds downright harsh.
But it also makes a lot of sense if the goal is evaluation Both Quarterback this year to see if also They are a candidate to lead the team forward beyond this year.
It would also make sense if the Seahawks were well below 0.500 after 10 games.
Insight No. 5: Geno Smith and Drew Lock are scary clones.
I honestly don’t know what other conclusion to draw based on the following data points:
- Yards per game: GNU, 248.5 | lock, 249.3
- Landing in each game: GNU, 1.40 | 1.43 . lock
Heck, even the average passer-by’s expected rating for them is pretty close: Geno, 88.2 | Drew, 84.8
Insight #6: Overall, Seattle should get a decent season from the quarterback.
As mentioned earlier, Mike Clay projects 2,485 passing yards for Geno Smith. He predicts 1745 for Drew Lock. Add that up and you get a total projection of 4,230 yards for Seattle QBs.
For what it’s worth, the career high of Russell Wilson is 4,219.
Speaking of this topic…
Insight #7: Mike Clay doesn’t think Russell Wilson is much better than Seattle’s Luke Smith formula this season.
If you look at the article and add all of Russell Wilson’s projected yards, he lands at 4,327 which is just 97 yards more than the 4,230 yards Mike Clay drafted for the Seattle QBs. That’s a difference of just 2.3%, or about 5.7 yards per game.
Granted, yards aren’t the only thing Mike Clay would expect.
There is also a passer-by rating, and the expected passer-by rating of Seattle QBs only is above 87.6 on two occasions – Week 4 (98.8) and Week 8 (88.0) – while Wilson’s expected passer rating is never lower than 96.2.
Mike Clay also expects Russell Wilson to throw 10 more touch passes than his Lock-Smith combination. Indeed, Mike Clay’s projection is that Ross will prove to be eerily robotic, casting twice in each of Denver’s 17 games.
But with that said, when all is said and done, Mike Clay only shows 10 TDs + 97 yards as the difference between Russell Wilson and the Lock-Smith group in Seattle this season.
Here’s the thing that could make 12 seconds happy because Seattle didn’t spend $250 million on RW3’s stretch.
Insight #8: QBs in Seattle may already be clinging against an opponent.
These are the games in which Mike Clay expects the Seattle quarterback to outperform the opposing quarterback – in passing yards, touchdowns, and/or passing rating:
Week 2, in San Francisco 49ers
246 yards pass for Geno Smith for 210 for Trey Lance—but Lance beats Geno in TDs (2 to 1) and passer rating (102.4 to 85.9).
Week 3, vs. Atlanta Falcons
236 yards + passer rating 87.5 for Geno Smith versus 232 yards + passer rating of 86.1 for Marcus Mariota.
Fourth week, at the Detroit Lions
251 passing yards + a pass rating of 98.8 for Jenno Smith versus 231 yards + pass rating of 95.9 for Jared Goff.
Fifth week, in New Orleans Saints
249 passing yards for Gino Smith for 222 for James Winston – The Saints QB leads GNU on touchdown (2 to 1) and passer ratings (96.5 to 87.0).
Week 7, in Los Angeles Chargers
Gino Smith beats Justin Herbert for yards (261 vs 256) but is smoked on the touchdown (3 to 1) and passer rating (99.1 vs 87.6).
Week 8, against the New York Giants
Geno beats Daniel Jones in passer rating (88.0 to 86.8) but loses by yards (245 to 234) while playing a draw on TDs (2 each).
Week 9 at the Arizona Cardinals
Geno Smith’s 254 passing yards versus Kyler Murray’s 246; 2 TDs each; Murray’s 11.2 best passer rating.
Week 14, vs. Carolina Panthers
Lock 2 throws a touchdown while Mayfield 1 only throws but Mayfield edges down a passer rating of 0.1 yards by 13.
Week 15, vs Niners
Lock proves that Geno topping Trey Lance was no fluke (Lock 243, Lance 214), but Lance returned the favor by doubling Lock on TDs (2 to 1) and outperforming the bystander rating (91.6 to 83.6).
Week 17, vs. New York Jets
The lock nearly sweeps Zach Wilson—243 to 239 on yards + 85.4 to 81.6 on the passer rating—but both QBs shoot 2 TDs.
The bottom line here is that Mike Clay predicts that the Seattle QBs will hold their own in 10 out of 17 games. Which is, frankly, more than I thought it would be when I started writing that list.
Week 1 (vs Denver Broncos), Week 6 (vs. Arizona Cardinals), Week 10 (vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneersin Germany), week 12 (vs Las Vegas Raiders), week 13 (versus Los Angeles ramsin Los Angeles), week 14 vs. Kansas City Chiefsat KC), and the Week 18 rematch with the Rams (in Seattle)…those are games where QB’s performance in Seattle is expected to be no better than a tie in any of the three categories (yards, TDs or passer rating).
Russell Wilson, Keeler Murray (once), Tom Brady, Derek Carr, Matthew Stafford (twice), Patrick Mahomes…
No complaints or objections. This actually seems fairly reasonable to me.
Vision No. 9: The current midfield situation for Cleveland is worse than that of Seattle.
The lowest projected total yards I saw while hopping through all the numbers for all 272 games was Jacoby Brissett’s 201 yards in Week 3.
Of course, this is kind of to be expected.
In the first week, Brissett is expected to have 208 yards. At week 2, that increased to 209. Week 4 is 207.
In week 5 brisette production is expected to rise…all the way up to 221. It’s back down to earth with 209 in week 6 and then up again (to 219) in week 7 and stays at that high with 220 inches in week 8.
Although it does not last. After Cleveland’s ninth week, Brissett is expected to have 212 yards in Week 10. He is expected to follow that with 214 yards in Week 11 and then throw for 216 yards in Week 12.
Brissett is thus expected to end his career as the Cleveland quarterback, after 11 games, with 2,336 yards — for a solid average of 212.4 yards per game.
In Watson’s first game, after suspension, Mike Clay predicts he will throw for 230 yards and two touchdowns. It doesn’t get much better from there though, as Clay’s predictions see Watson finish the season with an average of 231.8 yards per game.
Which is well below the 248.5 that Geno Smith would expect to average and the 249.3 this Drew Lock would average.
Looking at the contract DeShaun Watson signed, I’m guessing Cleveland Browns Expect more.
Insight No. 10: Don’t expect too many penalties.
Just twice in 272 regular season games during the 2022 season, Mike Clay projected that the quarterback would hit the 300-yard mark – Tom Brady in Week 4 and Patrick Mahomes in Week 11.
Brady drop? 301.
Drop Mahomes? 300 per point.
Final thought: ESPN predictions are fun, but they’re also absolute bullshit.
I thank the football gods for getting the real games started on Thursday.
Oh, and Go to billing! (Thursday night against the Rams)