NBA Rookie of the Year odds: Why Paolo Banchero is the best bet among the draft class despite the low odds

If you’re going to bet pre-season on the NBA’s Rookie of the Year award, you should be on Paolo Banchero. I usually seek more nuance in these prize previews, but if Banchero stays healthy, he’s the favorite to win the prize based on precedent. It’s now available at +225 in Caesars Sportsbook. It will still be a good value bet even for the money.

Chet Holmgren’s injury is part of that, but it’s much deeper. Winning this year’s Apprentice Award largely means property hoarding. We saw this play last season when Evan Mobley lost to Scotty Barnes even though it might be the greatest defensive season in junior history. Barnes had more field of view to subtract numbers, and this gave him the least amount of edge when counting votes.

Only two big men have won this award since 2006: Karl-Anthony Towns and Blake Griffin. griffin clippers They exchanged a starting point mid-season. Towns had Ricky Rubio on guard, one of the NBA’s hottest basketball players. Both were put into positions to handle the ball and score a lot of points. That’s what they did. It is an opportunity available to very few beginners. Since 2006, the average number of points per game has been 40 of them 15. Of those 40, 16 won the Rookie of the Year award, which means that a novice player who averages 15 points per game has about a 40% chance of winning the award.

You wouldn’t be surprised to hear what kind of newbies are given the opportunity to score this much. Since Chris Paul’s win in 2006, every lottery winner has been selected except for Malcolm Brogdon. Six winners were first place overall, two finished second and five were in the top five. This basically means that we are looking for high draft picks who will be given the freedom to handle the ball and score points.

Why does that draw us to Banchero? Well, let’s take a look at the next few picks in the 2022 NBA Draft. Holmgren is out for this year. Jabari Smith, a limited ball player recruited more collectively for his shooting and defense, plays on a team in Houston with Galen Green and Kevin Porter Jr. A very low number. To put it in perspective, 3.9 assists per 100 titles he just averaged is JJ Redick’s career mark. Porter’s passing numbers were much better last season, and he’s already grown as a playmaker since Houston moved him to center base. But he is still the top scorer in a decade. Smith may one day be a better player than Banchero, but he is unlikely to get enough ball to beat him as a rising player.

We’ll get to fourth pick Keegan Murray overall and No. 6 overall pick Benedict Mathurin shortly, but the No. 5 pick Jaden Ivey is the shaky shooter joining Kid Cunningham’s squad. The sky is the limit for him if the shot improves, but this season, the touchdowns likely won’t be there. 7, pick Shaedon Sharpe on Damian Lillard’s team and sits behind Anfernee Simons and Josh Hart in the standings. No. 8 pick Dyson Daniels and No. 9 pick Jeremy Sochan are basically defenders at this point in their careers. Number 10 pick Johnny Davis fights for two minutes with three NBA starters and two recent lottery picks. That’s getting close to the top 10. Not particularly encouraging, right?

All of this brings us back to Banchero, where he was drafted to be an offensive fulcrum in a team without a single goalkeeper installed on his roster. None of us can say for sure what kind of NBA Banchero player will be in 10 years’ time, but even if he’s in bankruptcy, there are plenty of precedents for these players to have won this award. Michael Carter Williams and Trek Evans are the winners of the Rookie of the Year award. There is very little connection between this award and future success. It’s all about publishing the numbers in season one.

Well, we’ve established that Banchero at +225 is the best value on the board. Are there other players worth sniffing at? If you really want to diversify your Rookie of the Year portfolio, I look forward to the following guys as reasonable sleepers. (Odds below courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.)

Keegan Murray, Kings (+430)

Murray won’t be a key ball-handling player, but he does play on a team with two generous teams. Domantas Sabonis is the best passing center west of Nikola Jokic, and De’Aaron Fox’s speed generates so much oomph towards the edge that a shooter like Murray gets plenty of open looks in and out of the arc. His mid-range game complements driving Fox and the rest of the Sacramento shooters well, and part of the allure of his fourth draft was that he was already 22 years old. This isn’t a teen that might help with that. The kings Choose him to help now.

This is the real reason to make this bet. The Kings are desperate for a gameplay boost, and Murray would gain narrative momentum if he helped them get one. While narrative assistance is intangible, workloads are quantifiable. The Kings would not run Murray if it was necessary to win. In a crowded Western conference, it would take enough minutes to publish numbers by default.

This was a much more attractive bet before Holmgren got hurt. Betting markets often require a secondary preference as a hedge against one-candidate mega-tickets, and Murray has fallen into that position almost by default. Banchero simply has fewer teammates likely to get in the way of his attack. In addition to Fox and Sabonis, Murray has to compete with Malik Monk, Kevin Huerter, Harrison Barnes, Richaun Holmes, and Davion Mitchell for touchups. There are a lot of mouths to feed in Sacramento. This is not true for Charm. If you bet on Murray, you’re betting the Kings will make a serious play-off. That’s what it would take to bridge a meaningful statistical gap between him and his likely favorite.

Malcolm Brogdon is gone. He could be joined by Buddy Hield and Myles Turner soon. The team is now firmly affiliated with Tyrese Haliburton, but any missed game will come in handy, and in clear tank season, minor scrapes and bruises tend to be long absences. The point here is that there are plenty of shots to get around in Indiana, and aside from Chris Duarte, there isn’t much Pacers eager to take them.

Stylistically speaking, Mathurin should play well against Halliburton when they are in the squad together. His best trait is his jump shot, but he’s a strong enough player to kill eager defenders by locking him in. He’s not very technical at picking and rolling, but he doesn’t need to be. It’s not as though Banchero and Murray are expected to publish flashy help numbers.

In fact, I’ll probably have to wait until the season to make that bet. We don’t know yet how Indiana will lay its lineups. Is Mathurin going to start? Most likely, he’ll come off the bench behind my Duarte. How often will Rick Carlisle play Three Keepers? His history suggests that it is something he will consider. The odds shouldn’t change much here between now and opening night, so there’s no reason to rush into this bet.

Much of the same reasoning as Mathurin applies to Agbaji, but you get it with three times the odds. He’s on a team that’s currently being demolished to the studs. There will be no shortage of shot attempts for Agbaji, and it doesn’t hurt to enter the NBA as a relatively strong defender. He’s also a four-year college player, so the learning curve wouldn’t be too steep. It wouldn’t be too surprising to see Agbagi starting in the Utah backcountry alongside Colin Sexton if Jazz They managed to trade Mike Conley before opening night.

The obvious drawback here is that although Agbaji is a stellar shooter, he doesn’t have much ball handling. He’s also on the Sexton team, and Sexton isn’t exactly known for his passing. If you’re looking for a long-term Utah bet, Sexton at +5000 for the most improved player looks the most attractive.

Well, the long shot for all the long shots. Whatever applies to Smith also applies to Washington. The difference is that you get one at +650 and the other at 100 to 1. Washington probably won’t play enough minutes to win that prize or even seriously compete for it. But Porter is fickle, and until he signs a contract extension, he’s a commercial candidate by default. If he or Greene gets hurt, Washington will have serious minutes for being a young tank crew.

Will I bet on this? no. But if you’re looking for the longest long shots, you’re looking at guards who have ways to minutes even if they involve injuries. Along the same lines, Jaden Hardy at +5000 is a fairly reasonable lottery ticket because Jalen Brunson just left Dallas and Spencer Dinwiddie has an extensive injury history. I wouldn’t bet on it either, but that’s the formula for choosing not the best. Brogdon won his award as a second-round pick after dollars Michael Carter Williams traded the current point guard nine days before the season. The odds don’t really reflect how likely something like this is, but there is precedent for that if you’re looking for one.