NFL 2022: Stats, Notes & Nuggets Every Fan Should Remember Entering Week One

It is, really, the best disease—yes, the best—to sneak into your mind. The return of ‘excitation-induced brain fog’. What is this? When you’re super excited about something — in this case, duh, NFL season — you forget about the usual events.

This phenomenon occurs at the start of every NFL season. Here’s the equation: Too much anticipation and too much time away from football equals an EIBF fan.

The EIBF will be infiltrating TV rooms and NFL stadiums starting Thursday with the Bills-Rams and continuing through most of September. So, I’ve put together everything you need to remember at the start of the 2022 season to combat the EIBF hype.

There is always a strange or annoying result in the first week

[Samuel L. Jackson voice] “Hold your butts.” This will happen. Prepare yourself. Want proof? i got you.

In 2021, the Saints closed Packers, 38-3, you know the same Green Bay club that will win 13 of their next 16 games and go down as the top seed in the NFC playoffs. In the COVID year of 2020, eventually 1-15 Jaguar Beat the playoff ponies In an odd first week competition that featured a Gardner Minshew incomplete and an average of 2.4 yards per carry for Jonathan Taylor. Pretty normal, right?

There was no turbulence in the landscape in 2019, but black And the basics Tied 27-27 in Keeler Murray’s first NFL game. Arizona scored six points over three quarters before blasting off 18 for fourth, and Detroit quarterback Christian Jones brought down what was likely an interception to close the game in overtime. On the same day, 11-5 final Seahawks Needed a fourth quarter, Russell Wilson strike for Tyler Lockett to beat the final score 2-14 Bengals, 21-20. a stranger.

At the beginning of the previous season, it was piratewho eventually went 5-11, overturned the 13-3 NFC North بطل champ saints, 48-40. Ryan Fitzpatrick averaged 14.9 yards per attempt (!) and had a QB rating of 156.3. The Saints will go on to occupy eighth place in Football Defensive Outsiders DVOAA comprehensive measure of efficiency.

In 2017, 5-11 Bronco beat 9-7 chargers. In 2016, a 49ers The team that eventually went 2-14, looked like the most complete team in football at 28-0 outperformed just as badly, at the end 4-12 Los Angeles rams. Blaine Gabber was the primary quarterback for San Francisco that afternoon. Jeremy Curley led the 49ers in the pickup. Heck, even in 2015, San Francisco beat Vikings, 20-3, in the first week. The 49ers finished 5-11. The Vikings won the NFC North at 11-5.

So if one finding doesn’t feel quite right in your soccer-loving bones in the first week, it probably isn’t. One game is always venturing through a portal in The Upside Down.

At least one team will move from last place in their league before a season to first place this year

Hey, crowsblack PlanesBronco, Jaguar, giantsThe Seahawks and leopards – I have great news! At least one of you will win your own score this season. genuinely! do not lie. History says so. basically. In 17 of the past 19 seasons, this seemingly impossible phenomenon has occurred.

Remember, too, that going from worst to first isn’t always the most obvious choice. What about last year, when the former Bengals went 4-11-1 to scorched earth over almost everyone to win the North Asian Cup, and slipped past Raiders In the first round of qualifying, the No. 1 seed was turned upside down titans in Nashville, then send shock waves through the sports world by wiping out two 14-point deficits to overcome heads At Arrowhead Stadium in the AFC Championship.

Worse than that is to happen. Fasten seat belts!

Your team should pass more

Yep, that’s been the primary calling of the NFL analytics movement for a while now. It was included in last year’s article. But even though you’re upset about it, it’s true. Your team needs to pass more this season. It can be started by doing this repeatedly at first. Strictly from a yardage perspective for qualifying appearances, only five teams—the Colts, Seahawks, the EaglesAnd the Brownand Buccaneers – earned a positive EPA on all rushed plays.

Now, if the new age analytics be The thing you prefer, you probably know about the Expected Points Added (EPA). If it isn’t, to summarize – it assigns points for plays relative to predicting that particular situation based on history throughout. And “the history of all times” is a fairly large sample size, wouldn’t you say?

In 2021 there were 10 teams that finished with a negative EPA (net loss to attack) in playing passes, which is actually quite a number lately. Conversely, though, 27 teams had negative EPAs when running plays. Huge difference.

And don’t get me started on the first run. I suggest erasing it from every offensive game plan in the NFL.

This, a season ago, shows each team the EPA’s soccer dash and soccer throw on that historically overlooked but important first.

Yes, Bill Walsh was right. The first descent is the best pass.

Note the difference in baselines between rushes and scrolls. It’s amazing. Only the Colts – with Jonathan Taylor and perhaps the league’s most downhill offensive line – got a positive EPA in rush plays first. Read that again. Meanwhile, only five teams had a negative EPA in playing passes. This is it!

I finished my case.

Pay attention to the differential of points!

Bombings in the NFL, it’s important. Here’s why. Six of the last seven and seven of the last nine Super Bowl winners finished in the top five in points difference during the regular season. We had a great streak of 5-point Super Bowl differentials until last year the Rams won the Lombardi Cup and earned epic Super Bowl rings.

But, hey, LA wasn’t far from some pretty mystical things. This team was sixth in points difference. And the pieces are random in the top five because it’s a kind of silly round number, right? What about the average score differential for Super Bowl winners? In the past six seasons, the points differential per game has averaged 8.58 points, which equates to roughly +146 points in points differential during the regular season, which lies between the Chiefs and Buccaneers’ point differential number of a. Last season.

I mention this because teams often win a set of close matches, which of course leads to a quality record and the idea the team said is really good. In fact, on just about every occasion, this team isn’t really as good as its record. As the season progresses, it’s almost better to check a team’s point differential before scoring. No disrespect, Bill Parcells. But the clubs are not what their track record says.

Let’s use 2021 Invoices as an example. They went to a solid but not surprising 11-6 during the regular season, but led the NFL in points differential at +194. Now, of course a bad bounce here or a misunderstanding there in qualifying and you’re out, the latter is exactly what happened to Buffalo. But we have all seen it. The Bills were of the caliber of the Super Bowl. The points difference was a stronger indicator of the quality of this team than its record.

The Saints will have a chance to make NFL history, by beating the five ‘bird teams’ this season

giddy. At any point in the long history of the NFL, a team has defeated all the bird teams — the Eagles, the Ravens, the Cardinals, hawksand the Seahawks in the same season. Of course, the scheduled Cosmos needs to align with the club to have the opportunity to achieve such a feat. These planets aligned to give the Saints a chance to do just that this season.

Your team needs to use motion play more, regardless of the playing condition on the ground

Its analytics community analyze it – The success of the game has nothing to do with it play efficiency. It doesn’t matter how you play it – back-only feature, commission restart. Little difference.

Last year, 28 of the 30 qualifying YPA quarterbacks had a higher YPA when using the playing move than when not using it. Of course, the large difference in sample size must be taken into account here. But, hello, offensive coordinators. It’s time to take advantage of the Play Action section of the contact sheet frequently.

If we see more gameplay action, will it become useless mainly because it is predictable? Nobody really knows. But you should hope that your offensive coordinator will try to find the optimal usage rate this season.

There will be a bunch of new teams in the playoffs

In 2021, half of the entire qualifying category was new teams, clubs that had not qualified for the post-season the previous year. In 2020, there were six new playoffs. This is close to the normal average in recent history. So “chalk” represents about half of the postseason field each season. Adjust the season predictions accordingly.

Now, after reading this article, you have completely resisted the arousal-induced brain fog. are you okay. Enjoy every second of the 2022 season.