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Jamal Crawford and Avery Bradley Andrew (D. Bernstein/NBAE via Getty Images)
All of the players below have been among the best in the NBA for the past 10 years. Signing multiple contracts and generally being on the rotation of teams is a testament to their distinction.
But compared to the media and fans’ perception of these players, there are strong cases where each has been overestimated.
This is an entirely personal endeavor. There is no advanced metric that measures whether a player has been underestimated, exaggerated, or correctly rated. There is not even a real sure way to measure players’ perception.
The five players here have had big stat warts from the past 10 years (2012-13 to 2021-22), but the teams kept pushing and playing with them.
In a few cases – you’ll know them when you see them – there is no argument that they shouldn’t score the heavy minutes. They are talented all-stars or all-stars on the border. But they have not lived up to the hype that has surrounded them over the past decade.
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Avery Bradley’s got two All-Defensive nods, and he probably deserves it. It’s hard to accurately measure the impact on that end of the floor.
But Bradley’s last All-Defensive pick came in 2016, and he’s apparently been taking over that reputation ever since. Throughout his career, his teams have generally given up More points Per 100 possessions when he is on the ground.
Low mass and rebound rates contributed to Bradley’s below average Defensive square plus/minus. However, this number should be taken with a grain of salt.
“Box Plus/Minus is good at gauging attack and generally strong, but defensive numbers in particular shouldn’t be considered definitive,” Daniel Myers Books for basketball reference. “Look at defensive values as a guide, but feel free to dismiss them when a player is well known as a good or bad defender.”
Combined with the above playing data, it’s at least fair to use the Bradley tag as a guide. And the slightly inflated value in defense isn’t the only point here.
Bradley has a real above average shooting rating exactly once in his professional life. It came in 2011-12, the previous season for the sample in question here.
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Jamal Crawford has been a fan favorite for two decades. He won three Man of the Year awards for Six, and remains a game ambassador to this day. as presented More than 100 million dollars In his salary and rank during his career eighth all the time in three times, 19 In the games played, 58 in points scored and 86 in passes.
By any definition of the word, Crawford had a successful NBA career. But over the past 10 years, a lot of numbers have undermined the argument that he was a useful player.
Since 2012-2013 – the period in which he has two Sixth Man of the Year awards – Crawford’s teams have been over 0.3 points per 100 holdings when he’s on the ground and plus 7.5 when he was abroad. In his award-winning seasons, the swings were minus 3.1 and 7.0, respectively.
While Crawford was known for taking tricky shots and getting worthwhile buckets, he did so with an efficiency that was nowhere near average. Over the last 10 seasons, he has scored approx. 90 points less In his attempts to shoot (including free throws) more than the average player would have scored during that period.
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The preamble here should look a lot like the introduction to Jamal Crawford.
DeMar DeRozan is a great basketball player, even by NBA standards. You can’t make five All-Star teams and average over 20 points for a decade or more without having a lot of skill.
DeRozan’s most diverse playing since joining the San Antonio Spurs in 2018 better reflects the reputation he’s built over the years. But for most of the past ten years, incompetence, lack of defense and unwillingness to adapt to the ongoing Three Point Revolution have negatively affected his impact.
Since the start of the 2012-13 season, DeRozan teams have been plus 1.6 Points for every 100 possessions he has on the ground and 3.8 with him. His recent campaign with the Chicago Bulls is the only one from that sample in which he had a positive swing.
This is due in part to the fact that it relies heavily on mid-range – one of the most difficult points on Earth to achieve efficiency – DeRozan Deployment Below average Effective field target ratio in nine of the past ten years.
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During mid-2010, DeAndre Jordan was one of the league’s most positively influential centers. From 2012-13 until 2016-2017, the Los Angeles Clippers plus 9.5 1 point for every 100 possessions when he was on the ground and -1.3 when he was out of the house.
However, a look under the hood reveals these numbers.
In the same period, Los Angeles was minus 1.9 Points per 100 possessions when Jordan played without Chris Paul. This number is more in line with what we’ve seen from Jordan over the past five years.
Since 2017-18, Jordanian teams have become minus 3.4 1 point per 100 possessions when playing and +1.8 when not playing. Of the 1,002 players who ever scored in an NBA game in those five seasons, Jordan had a raw plus-minus 576 rank. 966th.
Inattention in defense (especially off the ball), lack of any offensive game after finishing spoon throws or cross-bounce and comically poor free-throw percentage (48.2 over the past 10 years) contribute to these marks. However, his signature continues year after year.
The Brooklyn Nets traded Jarrett Allen in January 2021 at least in part to make more time for him, according to ESPN’s Kevin Arnowitz. This summer, his deal with the Denver Nuggets was one of the first announced when the free agency started.
It is getting more and more difficult to understand trusting him. As he enters his 34-year season, it’s hard to imagine a reversal of the above trends.
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In 2020-21 Julius Randle became one of only six players In the history of the NBA He averaged at least 24 points, 10 rebounds and six assists in a season. Oscar Robertson (who has done it three times), Nikola Jokic, Russell Westbrook, Larry Bird and Wilt Chamberlain (who have all done it twice) are the others.
Being on a six-man roster with five Hall of Famers is special, but Randle’s numbers slipped back into professional norms in 2021-22. This might lead him to believe that his penetration was actually an anomaly.
Posted by Randall A 3.8 square plus/minus in 2020-21. His career high before that was 1.5, and he was below average in three of the seven seasons in which he played at least 1,000 minutes.
Even taking into account his All-NBA campaign, Randle’s net career rank is minus 4.6. His teams are even more respectable – 1.3 when he’s off the ground.
In the eight years since Randle was enlisted, he’s proven his ability to accumulate raw numbers, but it often comes with the image of an ineffective shot and a lackluster defense.